Where's the "Intelligence Explosion"?

Ramez Naam, a respected futurist, argues skeptically against the widespread belief in "recursive self-improvement" leading to a rapid AI "takeoff" or technological singularity, challenging the assumption held by many in the AI industry that AI systems will soon dramatically improve themselves. While the author remains agnostic on whether such a singularity will occur, he notes that regardless of recursive self-improvement, AI capabilities are advancing so rapidly that they will likely appear godlike within the next decade or so.